Many of you have been asking yourselves and us many questions about consequences of the current situation on your finances and your projects past, present or future.
Alsace Conseil Courtage has taken stock of all these questions and is trying to answer them. best possible response as of today (Newsletter written on 03/04/2020).
Just like the health situation, the economic situation and the information we are passing on to you today are all very important. likely to change rapidly. That's why we'll be doing another update on the situation in the coming weeks.
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The index Flash Composite of the firm Markitfell to 30.2 in March in France, compared with 51.2 in February. As a reminder, an index above 50 indicates a state of growth, while an index below this limit indicates a contraction in the economy. |
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This information indicates a economic slowdown due to the coronavirus. While this may seem worrying, the other countries will suffer the same losses and we'll have to wait until the end of the confinement and then the resumption to see how the markets are performing. |
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Electricity consumption fell by -15% and the demand for electricity is one of key indicators of the country's activity. |
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This figure is explained in particular by the administrative closure of many businesses and factories in France. |
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The 2020 crisis is comparable to that of 1929. The rectifying finance bill still forecast growth of -1 %. The fall in GDP could reach -4.3 %. A estimate that could rise depending on how the health situation develops. |
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However, even if in terms of figures and impact these 2 crises are comparable, it is necessary to take a step back. Remember that in 1929, this was a economic crisis which resulted in very low demand. In our case, the demand was strong when the health crisis and the economic situation is only just beginning to improve. delayed production by the virus. |
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At the beginning of the year, the government was forecasting a public deficit of 2.2 % in 2020. A figure revised upwards to 3.9 % last week. |
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With 3 to 4 months of economic activity severely disrupted by this pandemic, it is logical that our deficit is impacted. The State, on the one hand, will collect less tax than expected and above all, secondly, will pay much more than expectedparticularly in the health sector. |
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337,000 companies have activated the short-time workingThis will affect around 3.6 million employees, i.e. 50% more than the government had initially planned. |
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Many companies have decided not to take no risk to their employees and others have also taken advantage of this financial windfall of the State to create treasury. |
At the start of this week, 80% to 90% construction sites frozenaccording to French Building Federation (FFB). The introduction of sanitary rules of conduct designed to promote recovery is still pending. Following an order issued last week by the government as part of the state of health emergency, the FFB is freezing administrative procedures for the duration of the state of emergency, which will last until the end of May. Once the state of emergency has been lifted, there will be a further delay of one month on top of what was initially planned.
This could herald a building permits at a standstillIn the meantime, the Caisse des Dépôts (the financial arm of the State) and Action Logement (a body run by employers and trade unions) promised last week to finance a total of 50,000 homes over the next 12 months.
As for theformerReal estate agents fear that transactions will not be completed for many months, following the closure of various notary offices.
To date, notaries' offices are always closed and not open to the public.
Notaries are currently testing new systems for sign documents remotely and in complete security. The technical difficulties of implementation persist in the Grand-Est region (in particular linked to the specific features of local law) and should be resolved in the coming weeks.
These solutions are eagerly awaited by many players and could change practices once the crisis is over.
The deposit guarantee protects customers and the banking system as a whole.
Bank accounts (current and savings accounts) are guaranteed for all individuals up to €100,000 per person and per establishment.
If a bank is no longer able to repay its customers' deposits, the Deposit Guarantee and Resolution Fund (FGDR) would compensate them up to €100,000 subject to certain conditions and limits.
By protecting depositors, the deposit guarantee helps to maintain confidence and ensure the security of deposits. stability of the banking system.
If the current situation were to continue, the deposit guarantee fund would cover the balance of individual accounts up to €100,000. But for the time being, no risk to be feared on the stability of banking institutions.
There's no such thing as a bad time to plan for the future. If the economy is slow, you can use this time to preparing for what comes after. We are here to help you preparing your project for tomorrow : a budget calculation, a feasibility study or even a rental investment to build up savings or prepare for retirement.
Whether it's calculating your budget or carrying out a financing study, we'll be at your side, today and tomorrow, to help you with your project.
Become the owner of your own home! Buying a property always takes a few months, which is all the more reason to take the time we've been given to prepare your project with peace of mind! Today, let's prepare for tomorrow!
The banking brands are currently communicating on the automatic deferral business loan repayments for a duration of 6 months, free of charge.
However, this postponement is not automatic and depends on the company's activity.
We therefore advise our business customers to get in touch with their broker in order to officially request this postponement.
Short-time working involves pay cut of around 15% per employee. As a result, the loan charge will be higher (around 5%).
This situation may be tenable for a few weeksBut a longer duration can be detrimental. It would then be wise to use the ability to defer maturities.
A maturity extensiona buybackor a renegotiation can be studied with your broker We're here to help you meet your expectations and protect your interests.
A financing application is approached differently by a self-employed person. It involves checking the financial stability of the borrower. The current situation is exceptional. We will be able to guide you in your best interests and provide you with our expertise in your purchase and financing project.
We are in an exceptional situation in which sales do not reflect normal business activity. The banks will take this into account.
While the current economic situation is tense, it cannot be allowed to continue.
We're here to support and advise you, so don't hesitate to get in touch!
As a result of the confinement, visits to properties have been suspended. However, some estate agents are offering virtual tours.
If property searches can continue in this way, the signing a preliminary sales agreement at the notary's office is currently much more complicated due to the temporary closure of notaries' offices to the public.
An electronic signature is being studied by the Chamber of Notaries.
The move is only authorised if there is no other solution.
A extended deadlines for the 2020 tax return.
In departments numbered 55 à 974/976 (zone 3), electronic declarants have until 11 June 2020 to hand in their copy. The deadline for declarations is 11.59pm.
Online declarations will open on 20/04/2020.
The rates obtained are frozen and they will not move at the end of confinement provided that the administrative file has been transmitted.
If your file is at the stage of simple proposition rate, the latter could be revised upwards.
So, a word of advice: don't delay in validating your brokers' proposals to protect your rates..
To date, in our opinion, two schools clash and two outcomes would be possible at the emerging from this health crisis :
- Scenario 1 - Towards a fall in rates : In view of the difficulties that thenational economy in the aftermath of the pandemic and with a period of recession (slowdown in economic activity)rates could remain attractive for boost the property market.
- Scenario 2 - Towards an increase in rates In view of thecongestion that French banks will have to absorb when business is set to resume at full speedrates could just as easily increase to make up for the accumulated production backlog during periods of confinement!
It's too early at the moment to (in)validate any of the scenarios, but we're staying on course. attentive to current events and indicators and will keep you informed as soon as possible.
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